Distribution Cut Risk Scorer
Estimates the relative risk of a distribution cut by combining our 4-component safety score with 5-year growth direction and track record. Lower is safer. Not a forecast — a structured warning when multiple components point the same way.
How the score is built
Risk points come from four checks. A REIT can score 0 (no flags) to ~100 (all flags maxed).
- Safety composite — below 50 = +30, below 75 = +15. Built from payout, coverage, occupancy, debt thresholds.
- Distribution growth (5y) — falling = +25, sub-2% = +10.
- Track record — sub-5y continuous = +20, sub-10y = +10. Aristocrat (10y+ no cut) = 0 penalty.
- NAV discount — below -40% = +15. Market is often (but not always) correct that something's wrong.
This is a heuristic, not a forecast. A low score doesn't guarantee distributions hold; a high score doesn't mean a cut is imminent. Use it to triage which REITs deserve deeper homework.