NAV Mean-Reversion Check
Compares the REIT's current NAV premium/discount to its own 5-year history. Returns where in the distribution it sits — useful for spotting genuinely unusual valuations versus REITs that just always trade at a discount.
Why mean-reversion matters for REITs
Some REITs always trade at a -20% NAV discount — that's their baseline, not an opportunity. Others swing widely. Comparing a current discount to its own 5-year average tells you whether the market is doing something it doesn't usually do, or simply continuing the pattern.
A wide negative z-score doesn't mean "buy" — it means "ask why this time is different." The discount could reflect a real impairment (occupancy collapse, debt refinancing stress) that justifies repricing.